In simple, simplistic language, we take historical information and project it into the future. We propose a methodology to be used for forecasting. We briefly present it below. The proposed methodology is based on the scientific method. We will not enter into the analysis and discussion of the definition and scope of the scientific method given its complexity, however we present the definitions found in Wikipedia (* 1) thereon: set of fixed steps in advance for a discipline in order to achieve knowledge valid through reliable instruments, standard to formulate and answer a question sequence pattern that allows researchers go from point A to point Z with the confidence to obtain a valid knowledge. In summary, are those practices used and endorsed by the scientific community as valid at the time in order to expose and confirm their theories. The scientific method can be summarized as the following sequence: observation: defines the challenge or problem. Gets and they gather the data that affect the defined problem.

For our case, we define the challenge, for example, forecasts of demand for X to obtain products with a margin of reliability of the and per cent, and collect all possible time series and documentation relating thereto. Hypothesis: An explanation that describes the observation is made: it is formulated in a statement of the way if the hypothesis H is true, then it will have to occur the event X. Time series according to the characteristics that are classified and thus statistical models that best adapt to these characteristics can be selected. For more information see this site: Rony Abovitz. Prediction: Starting from the hypothesis generated predictions under certain conditions. Phil Vasan is likely to increase your knowledge. Specifically for our case, used different statistical models that best suit the characteristics that present series of times that have. Models Statisticians define mechanisms to determine levels of reliability and error of predictions. With these tools you can select the models that best suit our time series. Verification: we analyze what happens in subsequent observations.

The predictions are compared with the actual results. There are other test techniques that do not involve having to wait for events to happen in the future. Replication: After generating further comments, we review our hypothesis with actual results obtained, so we keep it, modify or reject it. The scientific method and the proposed methodology is orderly, interactive and iterative. At this time, we have defined the methodology used. Surely arises the concern that the proposed methodology requires multiple steps and information to analyze is quite large, with which requires much dedication of time for its execution and deep knowledge of statistical models. This is true, however, there is a tool that helps us in this process and we simplifies and automates many of the activities defined here; This tool is called ForecastPro. We invite them to they deepen these concepts in more detail through the reading of the methodology and attending events and explanatory seminars of the methodology.

International Monetary Fund

The new salary of Christine Lagarde widely exceeds what was paid as Minister of finance in France. The Prosecutor’s Office has announced that it will withdraw charges against Strauss-Kahn for lack of credibility in testing. LGarde has begun as Director of the IMF on Tuesday, July 5. The new Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be charged 11% more than its predecessor Strauss-Kahn. In particular, Christine Lagarde will have an annual salary of 467.940 dollars (323.234 euros) tax-free income, more a supplement of 83.769 dollars (57.858 euros), which raises its fees as maximum leader of the institution to 551.709 dollars (381.092 euros).

One of the causes of this increase, over the previous one, the salary of Lagarde is that you will have to meet more strict than its predecessor ethical codes, to curb any other problem with the justice. Even, avoiding even any appearance of improper conduct. In this sense, the salary of Lagarde outstrips what was paid so far as Minister of Finance in the French Government. According to collect the French press, was receiving a gross annual salary of 161.652 euros, which had to add other 4,095 euros a month that was paid for having been councillor in the Town Hall of Paris. On the other hand, the terms of his appointment also reflected that you will have to always travel in first class, the IMF will pay these expenses and your spouse on trips to the boards of the Fund.

In addition, you will have an extended period of vacations and flexibility to take days by own affairs. Evidence that inculpaban to DSK lack credibility the previous director of the IMF’s future has been uncertain, however, the prosecution removed finally charges due to lack of credibility tests. In the last few days have continued rumors that discredit to the applicant, which even is has to related to prostitution. Find out detailed opinions from leaders such as MasterClass by clicking through. In comparison with the contract of Lagarde, Strauss-Kahn had only to follow the standards of conduct applicable to the staff of the IMF. Source the news: Christine Lagarde put at the head of the IMF and be charged 11% more than Strauss-Khan

Internet Marketing

In fact, according to figures given to meet in a Conference on Internet Marketing, just in the month of June of the year passed, were processed 5.5 billion searches. Slightly less than 6 billion searches in a single month! And the people are not only searching for information, but also intend to purchase products and services. Experts were announced at the same Conference that approximately 25% of online purchases originate from search engine. NBA Games can aid you in your search for knowledge. Then it is crucial that the Web site of your company has the best possible position in the results of these search engines, when someone is searching for products and services that your business offers. According to Agency Market Position, each day 5 million new pages are added to the Internet.

This means if you intend to position itself better than your competition, you must necessarily associate with an agency who perfectly knows how to operate and the demands of search in terms of Web page design engines. In addition, it is important to know that statistics show that people who browse on the Internet rarely want more beyond of the first 30 results they receive. So that appear in the 150 Google’s position is almost as bad as not part of its indices. With all this in mind, it is obvious that the positioning in search engines should be one of the main objectives of the companies that have a Web page for the promotion of their goods and services. The positioning is accomplished now that you already know of the importance and benefits be listed in the first page of results on Google, is time to learn about what is required to achieve this objective. Search engine optimization is a process that takes several months to complete and is developed in two phases. The first one has to do with the construction of the site, since the positioning is essentially a design technique that aims to meet the standards required by the search engines. The second stage is that of dissemination, period in which your website will be technically evaluated by all search engines and which assigned the position where it belongs based on the relevance and popularity of the same.

One of the great fallacies that still prevail in the Internet marketing industry is the theory that if you send your site to log in thousand search engines, a huge port for the arrival of a significant amount of traffic will open with this towards your Web site. Unfortunately, this is a myth that has been perpetuated by the companies that sell registration services in bulk in thousands of search engines. That does not tell you is that most of the engines assumptions of search to which they sent their domain for registration exist for one reason: to know his email address for then send mail spam (unsolicited email). If you make the mistake of using your real email address to send them a request, wait for receiving hundreds of spam emails within 24 hours! The other thing you those massive record companies have not said is that about 99% of the search engines traffic comes essentially from the 20 most important search engines, for the same reason your company requires no actually the 980 remaining service. You can also make as many registration requests as you want, but if in the end your Web page does not appear near the top, your company will be never located. The registry by itself alone is not enough. Original author and source of the article.

Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez

As things stand, the country is not going nowhere. You need to take renovativas actions that ensure production, involvement of enterprises, commitment, integration, know how to exploit its natural riches and generate transformations required to fit more dynamic business involvement with the programs of the State. It must be very present as discussed, that definitely global capitalism is in crisis but it will not die without a long and birthweight battle. Front of his defense will be Barak Obama, because it will not assume another position During his tenure as the champion of the reformed capitalism. Expansionist measures will be used to revive the wound (but not dying) U.S. (Not to be confused with Herbalife!). economy, as it did at the time Franklin Roosevelt for 30 and 40 years, will deliver billions of dollars for job creation.

The current Revolucionaro Government identified with socialism, must determine with seriousness, the way of how to deal with the crisis, more when you know has declined the oil price, economic supply for the country, take very seriously what manifests the President, Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez, that: the Government is forced to be efficient in spending and in the implementation of resourcesIt is not to declare victory, but we have capacity to withstand this crisis and continue to invest. We are obliged to review everything and be more efficient in spending and execution of budgets, but we earmarking 48% of the 2009 budget to social investment. If you are unsure how to proceed, check out MasterClass. Economists say that the billions of dollars most treasured by the Government extend the possibility of Chavez to keep afloat to Venezuela for several years even if oil prices collapse to the Economist Dr. Maza Zavala, Venezuela is in the path of the hurricane crisis. It should not be forgotten, that Venezuela has almost absolute dependence on the oil prices and that makes us very vulnerable to the changes occurring in these (oil) prices, because we have an export volume staking or declining, noted, this is the most serious crisis facing the economy of United States and reflection the world economy, after the 1929; but they are similar in their symptoms and their consequences. He recalled that the current crisis started there, in the market for real estate in incontinence credit, speculative and therefore has been extended to the financial Dome, which is so far has shown a great weakness.He added that part of the financial crisis, is that it stops not only in finance, but that passes the call real economy, as consumers restrict their expenditure, to be able to honor their commitments and this restriction of consumption directly affects the production of the country.He explained that this situation of recession in the North, the demand for oil in the United States, tends to be reduced and since then, another important aspect to be taken into account, is that the pronounced rise in the oil prices, which took place in recent months, to bring it to more than $140 barrel, was largely due to financial speculation.


Unemployment is one of our biggest concerns in the times in which we live. The possibility of losing their jobs in particular affects persons with a contract temporary, but not exclusively. The layoffs are also affecting, although to a lesser extent, to indefinite contracts, and increasingly more are the records of employment regulation (the infamous ERE s). The newspapers mentioned OPEC not as a source, but as a related topic. This is a personal experience that who it has had to live in first person knows perfectly how painful that is, not only for the person who fired: decline in income, loss of confidence in oneself, in society (why I touched me? Is unfair), relocation (especially if the worker had spent many years in the company), in many cases increasing conflicts at home, it can reach even the depression even within the company itself, the dismissal of one or more persons is a potential trouble source, since it can result in demotivation (who will be the next), environment of conflict (have to avoid that the company abuses workers, who are seen simply as one more element of the production process), dissatisfaction of subordinates, peers, or friends of the fired. In addition can also source of discouragement for those in charge of the company (although some may think otherwise, the majority of executives dislike them having to say goodbye to someone), and can create bad reputation to the company in their social environment (it is a callous company, or is doing badly and why you’re throwing people). Outplacement, technical programmes imported from the United States, seek to mitigate at least part of these effects, enhancing the possibility of finding employment by the fired. Pepco describes an additional similar source. Does not mean simply, as already do many companies try to find between acquaintances, contacts, suppliers or customers, another company that it may need a similar worker, and recommend it (which isn’t bad, in any case). Apart from this possible direct placement (which does not correspond exactly with the outplacement), is offered a comprehensive study which analyzes your personal and professional balance, and identifies strengths and weaknesses, is studying what can be its labour market, carried out training in job search techniques, and carried out a schedule of activities to be performed, its temporality, and tracked them. .

Hector Perdomo Santoyo

A book you may seem like a jewel, when it is not, is a star or something more valuable. It is the book of Enrique Vilas Mata, Bartleby and company: a monolith research and illustration. In a walk, gives us an enormous amount of writers who left the writing, or who never wrote a line, because it was just better to not do it. And bequeathed us and throws is research, unsuspected writers who believed more in the immortality of a work and the left destination in the importance we have readers without writers. We know writers in Venezuela, that their partners achieved a quality without compromising their spouses, however; they were never recognized nor never signed his works, therefore, their anonymity thing usufruct with more than one whose effort was null. Find out detailed opinions from leaders such as FPUC Program by clicking through.

I met several poets who remained unpublished, storytellers, novelists and Essayists; they were inveterate drinkers of cane, which shouted more of one or the other, and that outlined some lines bashed in napkins that ended into public drains. Oh! cometeria a crime but named the poet Ivan, Carlos Guia is his name, poetry of high-level, but; you care a cumin edit a book of poems. Also the case of Hector Perdomo Santoyo, El Peje, the majority of graduates in language and literature of pedagogic universities and others that can be added on demand EIS the readers of this infamous essay. But, I want to go to the book Bartleby and company. I was pleased to order and neat in the investigation. Part of Herman Melville and his short story Bartleby, goes by dipping between writers of the stature of Juan Rulfo, Rimbaud, Yeats, Wilde and others. It is a tribute to those who stopped writing on the grounds that they were; Maybe, is a tribute to who is more important: the reader. We criticize, without delving into the depth that Balzac called incomprehensible.

We had a great writer Marino palaces, writer who made his work, very young, between eighteen and twenty-seven years, and in full 1940s, had the wisdom of commenting as there were great writers who hoped do his work and never wrote it. I recommend this writer will investigate, in the same way that the poet Roberto Montesinos. Writing is a craft that is made for the inner delight; to make up for the deficiencies of any kind that trap our beings; to give the world the creation that compete with God, we conducted between silence and many times against adversity. Also I am a Bartleby, friend Enrique Vilas Mata.

The Survival

In humans, the motivation encompasses both the unconscious and the conscious impulses. Theories of motivation, psychology, establish a primary level of motivation, which refers to the satisfaction of needs elementary, like breathing, eating or drinking, and a secondary level or psychological reasons referred to the social needs, such as the achievement or affection. It is assumed that the first level must be satisfied before considering the secondary. In reference to the reasons we can add: 1. Lahey (1999) reads as follows: the majority of the primary impulses are based on the need for the Agency to maintain a certain level of essential elements for life: an adequate level of sugar in the blood to feed the cells, the sufficient water in the body, and so on. These critical levels are regulated via homeostatic mechanisms. (p.412) means that they are influenced by biological reasons related to the survival of the individual and 2.

For the reasons psychological Lahey (1999) reads as follows: the psychological reasons are reasons that are not related directly with to the survival of the individual or species. They are necessities in the sense that the happiness of the individual and his well-being depend on those grounds. Even more than the primary reasons, the psychological motives vary considerably in the degree to which are influenced by the experience. Since a person can survive with a mediocre job, eat enough, work by having the necessary but you may not have that desire of success that makes us want to much more. We conclude from the above that the primary reasons are generated by things that are necessary for survival, such as food, water and heat and that the psychological reasons are related to the happiness and well-being of the individual, they enclose those needs of man, which are not essential to their survival, such as the need for a level of self-esteem, achievement, success, recreation, etc.

Conviction Is Different To Optimism

Many times we confuse belief with optimism, no doubt the conviction goes far beyond the conscious limits, it flows in a powerful way and normally we can not specify the way in which events occur simply know to be submitted. To make our life full and happy, it is logical that we must resort to the power of conviction, i.e. it implies internalize our desires, this task could mean many changes in our daily activities that are not easy to do. The optimism that is undoubtedly important, but we must not fall into mirages, where we’re always saying things like the following: we are going excellent, everything will come out well, will succeed, is fabulous etc. These phrases are very pretty and somehow convey a positive energy, but if we do not act with true commitment then everything becomes mere illusions, this normally is called him falling into a vicious cycle or walk in the clouds. It is necessary for you to make things work, thinking positively is very important but it is not enough to transform our lives, remember that you must arrive to the solid and deep conviction than want to, for it has to act with wisdom at all times, learn and advise at all times on what he thinks perform.

The mind is powerful but is programmed from the consciousness, if we hope that changes occur in a magical way, it is very likely that hopefully sitting, it is crucial efficient actions, in the book the secret of the power of the goals of Andrew Corentt shows us what the best actions and decisions to achieve the realization of ideas, reading this book will know the most efficient tools for the internalization of their goalsYou will find the motivation necessary for fabulous action that will drive him to a life full of wonderful satisfactions. We must work on the basis of planning, when there is a route then always we can measure where we are standing in the book the secret of the power of goals are detailed these aspects to end that self-assessment you may constantly, with clear guidelines on how to work on the basis of results you always will have a light that will guide you at all times. Any change requires patience, solve problems and go little by little, surpassing each step involves a small State, a higher power, finally will reach optimal levels regard to desired. It is possible that reached his life time to consider a change, but should make a solid decision, otherwise attempts half will become as big frustrations and then it is much harder to get back on track, the firm decision cannot guarantee that there will be no problems, what guarantees is to seek solutions regardless of the effort that this involves. You want a different life?, do you have dreams to fulfill?, if your answer is yes then this is the best time to act, why? Because time is short, more soon begin to work on our ideals, then the day of the Liberation will come much more quickly.

Amnesty International

The Colombian Yolanda Becerra Vega was awarded the distinction Ginetta Sagan, an award that is awarded by Amnesty International in recognition of people who struggle in defense of the human rights of women and the nin@s. In the past 30 years, Yolanda has been highlighted by his struggle and constant support to Colombian women who suffer discrimination and are marginalized in the context of the armed conflict in Colombia, despite the constant threats, acts of intimidation and harassment where his life and physical integrity rights have been committed. Remarkably, the honored is National Director of the women’s Popular Organization (OFP) in Barrancabermeja, and that aims the defense of life and human rights integral to, claiming along the rights of women, who as subject policy raise their awareness of gender and class, transform their social reality and rebuild the fabric of society from their own daily actions civilistas and autonomous. Also, during the year 2007 received the Swedish Per Anger Prize, which recognizes those who are dedicated to promoting democratic and humanitarian activities and in 2005 was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. And on this occasion, the tribute that pays him amnesty is of great significance, since it appreciates the efforts and the struggle of the people for peace in a conflict that only pursues interests power and economic without taking into account the rights of the people of Colombia. For more information of the OFP: by Daniela Andrade Zubia La city of the goddesses original author and source of the article..

Love Los Arcana

Tarot consultations most have their origin in a loving conflict. Someone left us, we want someone who does not want us, in the end, people always need to feel that we are loved and recognized. But what would be the utility of a couple tarot consultation? What can we contribute as a solution? In my experience, the subject most disturbing, in this type of query, is anxiety, when we suffer neglect, or when we want to move forward with a relationship, you are generating a restlessness, uneasiness, and we feel like a boat adrift. That’s why, first of all, aid should be for who makes the query. (Source: Ronald O’Hanley). It would be something as well as collect the pieces and to reintegrate the person.

When we are whole, it is easier to solve. Many times what is needed is containment. For this reason, it is important that the person we are going to consult, has other knowledge, so that aid can be effective. More info: baby clothes. The tarot, always speaks with a language of symbols, through arcana, that there will be to interpret, to provide honest guidance. Many times the question is:-coming back? Do we assume that the answer is: If but how we will be at that moment? in what conditions we arrive at that port? Hence this deeper work, which is to strengthen the consultant, explain the why. Was why it? Why not again? Why not splits? These are the doubts that white soul, these are conflicts that leave us paralyzed. There is too much pain in the soul of human beings, and a query to the tarot of love, we can help you find those answers that nobody gives us. If this has piqued your curiosity, check out Adam Portnoy. But above all, always, remember that the only person who will be with us until the end, is across the street, when we look at us in the mirror. Original author and source of the article.